System
Bear market and crypto winter – how to trade them?
The markets are currently in a pessimistic mood. Long-term trends are severely endangered and nowhere near all time highs. On the other hand, prices have not come down far enough so that they could be called cheap or even a bargain. This is the time for swing trading on a shorter time horizon. It is […]
Crypto and stocks start to tremble
Yesterday financial markets showed first severe bearish signs. An intraday reversal for the NASDAQ and other US indices signaled waning confidence in current rich stock valuations. The long-term weekly chart (QQQ) still looks okay, but the macro-economics don’t. After the Fed suggested to finally stop the money printing during the next months, economists are asking […]
Crypto is starting again
Bitcoin shows resilience despite all regulatory crackdown threats. See the bitcoin weekly and 2-hour chart. Note that the jump in the intraday chart was partly ignited by the news that Amazon would accept crypto payments in a few month or a year. The news was denied one day later by Amazon saying that they are […]
Illusion of the Martian face – for chartists!
Many years ago the Viking exploration of Mars found first signs of extraterrestrial life while orbiting the planet and taking pictures! Years later, with a different position of the sun and a greater resolution of the camera, the human face seemed to have almost vanished. Or had the alien just grown old? No, humans are […]
Bitcoin becomes real money
The current state of cryptocurrencies is ambiguous. Coming from a high of about $65,000, bitcoin (weekly chart of the last 3 years below) has fallen by 50%. Before that it made an advance of 100,000,000% in about 10 years. Really! That’s no mistake. One dollar would have become one million dollars in ten years. Weighing […]
Bitcoin: Stock market correlation or restarting hype?
Bitcoin shot up impressively to pre-corona levels. Is the hype back now? Two weeks after the stock market started to react to the corona virus, correlation between stock and crypto markets suddenly increased and bitcoin experienced a dramatic crash. The safe haven status that bitcoin enthusiasts liked to proclaim got severely shattered. A free fall […]
Libra – freedom made by Facebook
Facebook just announced the “Libra”, a new stable coin and sort of an international payment vehicle selflessly designed to help the underbanked of the world. It shall be backed by a basket of real currencies and be usable via Facebook’s social media portals. How will this affect the existing financial world? Astonishingly Facebook seems to […]
The Bitcoin hype is back
Now there are all gates open for the next run to $100.000. Of course, it will not shoot up directly to the moon, but rather meander more often up than down and drive traders dizzy! But not us, see below… After the first attempt twelve weeks ago and then the astonishing outbreak from $4000 about […]
Bitcoin tries a restart
After a long slump comes finally the next attempt. Will this restart lead straight to old highs? Probably not, but… …nonetheless it could be traded. Always try to get in early when the time comes, but be prepared to get shaken out. Retry and eventually you will be on board for the long run and […]
Bitcoin is on the brink of dropping
Bitcoin slipped during the last night some percent lower and revived interest after a phase of lowest volatility, albeit in the wrong direction. See the daily chart below including the glory highs of 2017. Many investors having an interest in strong crypto markets are touting bitcoin since month as forming a bottom, even a classic […]
Dogecoin shows relative strength
Dogecoin, a so called altcoin, fights against the downslide of the general cryptocurrency market. Upper charts are Dogecoin and lower are Bitcoin for comparison. The daily chart at the right shows an upshot of about factor three in about two weeks. The relative strength seems to be caused by Yahoo Finance. They announced that Dogecoin […]
Bitcoin ETFs shot down again by the SEC
The SEC rejected on Wednesday nine bitcoin futures tracking ETF proposals all at once and the bitcoin price didn’t react much. See the weekly (left) and daily (right) charts below. The small run up yesterday and the fall back occurred mainly before the SEC published its decision. The situation is somewhat similar to the one […]
AMD strikes back
AMD reported earnings during this week and convinced Wall Street with some good numbers. Let’s look at the chart of the last 15 years, which shows a new long-term high. Important here are not the numbers themselves. They are not that impressive. AMD managed to earn $116 M and to grow revenues 53% year over […]
Bitcoin is at a critical support level
During Friday, Bitcoin dropped to or even through its critical support level at around $6000, which it reached on the 6th of February earlier this year as seen in the weekly chart below. What does that mean now? Nothing good. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will drop more severely if it penetrates the […]
Cryptocurrencies explode into a bubble
During the last month the market cap of all cryptocurrencies exploded by a factor of three and since the beginning of this year it shot up almost tenfold. This is a digital ten bagger! What is a cryptocurrency or a coin? It is a form of digital “money”. Bitcoin was the first coin and others […]
Oil is the swing trader’s surf paradise
Oil was for the last two month in a swinging mode. It swung smoothly, which is important for a swing trader. Look at the daily chart below and imagine how you ride the black and shining waves… Either one needs a fine trend for a successful trade or a fine swing. Essentially oil was volatile […]
Bitcoin’s strange dance near its all-time high
Bitcoin is nearing its all-time high again and everyone in the cryptocurrency markets is wondering what is going on here… The daily chart shows the erratic reaction to the SEC decision to disapprove the ETF of the Winklevoss twins. After that, the price came back astonishingly for a few days, but fell again to new […]
Bitcoin ETF damned by the SEC
The SEC has finally decided against the proposed rule change that would have allowed the Winklevoss ETF to be listed and traded on the BATS exchange. The chart shows an early spike on misinterpreted news setting a new all-time high and demonstrating the fear of some bitcoin traders to miss the wave, and later the […]
Bitcoin finally made a new all-time high
During the last hours bitcoin advanced through the magic line of about $1170, its all-time high from more than 3 years ago. The chart of the last 35 days shows a bumpy ride with the first attempt to crack the all-time high crippled by the Chinese central bank and its actions to torpedo bitcoin trading […]
Bitcoin’s rally imploded – for now
During the last hours bitcoin crashed more than 20% shortly before making a new all-time high against the dollar. The vehement move suggests that the recent rally was driven by short-term oriented traders and not by long-term investors who anticipated a new bull run after clearing the all-time high. Overall, that is a less bullish […]
Bitcoin nears all-time high
Bitcoin, the amazing cryptocurrency, has advanced over the last days. Currently it trades around $900 with the all-time high of almost $1200 in sight. The all-time high of BTC/EUR is even more close, because of the decline of the euro against the dollar. As usual, many explanations are circling around. Some have to do with […]
Swing scalping the next oil wave
Since about one year oil is on the run. It ran down! Now it is oscillating. And that is exactly the market needed for swing trading. To make money we need smooth swings. A market suitable for swing traders produces smooth swings. It is swingy. What most see just as a useless tautology is universal […]
Bitcoin prepares for the next moon shot
After the explosive peak at the end of 2013 bitcoin languished for most of the time. But now it seems to come back! The last weeks brought something like a breakout of a base that formed loosely after bitcoin draw renewed interest half a year ago. The reasons? Bitcoin is a new market and it […]
The Bitcoin miracle
One of the most stunning examples of lofty valuations with reminiscences of the tulip mania is Bitcoin. Below is the Bitcoin chart of the last 5 years. Bitcoin made an incredible run and went from 5 cent to over $1000 in a little more than three years. Every white dot of the vertical scale marks […]
Bitcoin is ready to restart
Bitcoin, the miracle from the cyberspace, may see new highs. Let’s have a look at the remarkable chart that shows an advance from $5 to over $1000 in less than two years. Yesterday Bitcoin managed to get over $400 again and this long-term chart looks as if it were ready for more. Why? During the […]
Oil hits new lows
After worrying Chinese export and import data came out, crude oil dropped to a new low in the current downtrend as seen in this weekly chart. The long-term reasons are still the same. The OPEC couldn’t agree on a production cut as Saudi Arabia wants to fight competition from American shale producers. Chinese economic data […]
Bitcoin is warming up for new highs
During the last month a fallen angel has started to rise again: Bitcoin. What actually is the fuel behind the move? As usual with Bitcoin, nobody knows for sure. One month ago the Bitcoin exchange Gemini of the Winklevoss twins came alive. Perhaps this is seen by the market as a precursor of their planned […]
Volkswagen sinks to the ashes – for now
Look at this chart of the crashing VW phoenix. They are already expecting more than 6 billion Euros in direct damages, aka fines. VW managed to build intelligent cars. No, they are not as intelligent as the self-driving one from Google. Their intelligence is just sufficient to understand when they are in a test situation. […]
Oil rally or brief reversal?
The oil crash just took a breather with an abrupt two day uptrend. Will it go further? Hard to say, as the depressing factors are still in place. Reasons for this short-term rocket are most likely news about an encouraging U.S. growth and the relaxation of international equity markets. There are also reports of an […]
The oil crash goes ahead
Oil just made new lows as predicted. Time to get on board of a fine trend if you haven’t done so already. The oil market saw new price lows during the last days. There seem to be two main reasons for that: Iran closed the nuclear deal with world powers and is now on the […]
The German Bunds crash
German Bunds are the short of a lifetime, according to Bill Gross, the bond guru. He seems to have called the very low on April 21 (red circle) of the 10yr Bunds as seen here in the daily yield chart. Did he? Or did he rather influence the market with his opinion? In any case, […]
The oil crash
One of the most remarkable trends of the last months is the deep dive of oil. Oil is tanking! One reason is the US and its ability to exploit previously unprofitable repositories. Fracking has led to an oil glut, temporarily at least. The US just became a net exporter of oil after decades of being […]
How low will the euro go?
What is Zen trading? It is trading done the simple way and that means looking for the right trend and finding the right entry spot. Here we have one, the decline of the euro. While the fundamental reason for this steep decline is the current monetary policy of the ECB called quantitative easing, psychological reasons […]
Tesla surprises with strong sales
During the last weeks Tesla (TSLA) sold more of their flagship product than they previously estimated. The news produced an impressive intraday run. However, the high stock price implies and demands strong growth and, seen from this angle, such unexpected news is actually anticipated. Let’s see whether it is the precursor of a growth acceleration […]
Twitter starts from its bottom base
Twitter (TWTR) swings back up after having paused some weeks to rebound from its IPO splash. TWTR’s first day trading range exceeded the IPO price of $26 impressively. Growth is currently there, but the stock is also expensive. A quarterly revenue growth (yoy) of 104.8% compares to revenues of 534M (ttm) and a market cap […]
First Solar reported a strong quarter
Today First Solar (FSLR) gapped up after reporting some good numbers last night. Revenues were better than expected, although part of this advance comes from a shifting-effect of revenue recognition between quarters. FSLR raised its earnings guidance for the current year, but reduced its sales expectations. Especially impressive was the reduction of production costs down […]
SolarCity expects strong growth for the next year
SolarCity (SCTY) jumped today about 23% on a bold prediction about its near future. SCTY expects to grow their revenues for the next year 89% over this year.
Apple tops expectations with new iPhone launch
Apple (AAPL) sold 9 million iPhones over the weekend, which is a record for the company. The launch included for the first time colored phones and offered two main variants, the 5S and 5C. The former comes also in specific luxury versions with a fingerprint reader and, for instance, in space-gray, and the latter is […]
Baidu’s mobile search revenues may surprise
Baidu (BIDU) made a new high today in its recent uptrend. Analysts believe that mobile search revenues could surprise everybody. Click through rates have been astonishingly high for ads on mobile devices.
SolarCity closes financing deal
SolarCity (SCTY) ran up about 15% on news that they formed a fund together with Direct Energy in which the latter company will inject up to $50 million. This fund is intended to finance solar projects of Direct Energy’s commercial and industrial customers.
Qihoo expands market share faster than expected
Today Qihoo (QIHU) said it is going to reach 20% of China’s search market very soon, which was targeted only for the end of the year. The thirty percent mark could be approached at the end of 2014. Qihoo is the dominant browser vendor in China. The browser had used search services from Google. Very […]
Taser’s new product seems to be a success
Taser (TASR) rose today after announcing that their new body-worn AXON camera and their evidence.com service may become a success story. Their hopes are that in five to ten years such a camera is standard for law enforcement agencies aka the police. Perhaps, but what if others will deliver this relatively simple camera, for instance, […]
Icahn reveals Apple stake
During market hours Carl Icahn revealed in a twitter post that he has accumulated a stake in Apple (AAPL) of about $1.5 billion. Immediately after the post the stock shot up 4%. Icahn thinks even without growth prospects that Apple’s stock should be worth $625. Moreover, it should be a no-brainer for the company to […]
Ubiquiti surprises with stronger earnings and guides up
Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) gapped up on a strong earnings report. Challenges with distributors who counterfeited their products apparently have been overcome. Ubiquiti’s business seems to be on track again and the company wants to concentrate on growth now. Still, there are much larger possible competitors in the outdoor wireless and enterprise WLAN markets.
Yelp gaps up on earnings and growth in mobile ads
Yelp (YELP) gapped up today about 25% on an earnings report with sales growth of 68% and a loss of only $0.01 per share. Analysts upgraded the stock and believe that there is still much growth potential for the online local listings site as only 2 percent of all businesses have claimed their profiles.
Facebook surprises with mobile ad revenues
Facebook (FB) is premarket about 25 to 30 percent higher after beating earnings and revenues estimates by a slight margin. The share of mobile ads exceeded all expectations with 41% of total revenues. Mark Zuckerberg believes that mobile revenues will soon be larger than desktop revenues. Is that wishful thinking and the current mobile trend […]
Baidu presents increasing mobile revenues and contracting margins
Mobile revenues came in at a record share of more than 10% of total revenues. On the other hand, margins contracted somewhat caused by larger traffic acquisition costs, content and bandwidth expenses, and promotional and R&D investments. But the market seemed to be more impressed by the good news and so Baidu (BIDU) gapped up. […]
Tesla surprises with revenues and earnings
Today the stock of the leader in electric cars gapped up on record volume. After having already indicated one month ago that sales picked up more than expected, Tesla Motors (TSLA) again surprised with unexpected financial results for the last quarter. There are two great questions at this time: Will the electric car be the […]
Tesla announced coming profitability
Tesla (TSLA) gapped up today on the announcement that more than expected Model S sedans will be sold during the quarter than it projected.
The Tau Trader operation
Welcome to Tau Trader! I am going to make some remarks on interesting market situations from here on. You can subscribe to them, use them as a selection of tradeable market chances, and trade them with your trading system of choice. No more guidance? Not at this point! TT
